Election outcomes take shape one week later

One week after Election Day, we finally have a good idea of what the next two years will look like on Capitol Hill.

While long thought that this year’s midterm elections would bring a “red wave” across the country, in the end Democrats were able to hold their ground in several swing states and remain in control of the Senate, while narrowly losing the House of Representatives to Republicans.

Even with the Senate race in Georgia headed to a run-off next month, Democrats know they will be in control of the Senate at least until 2024. They currently control 50 votes, plus Vice President Kamala Harris would provide a 51^st vote in the event the Senate stays 50-50 as it was prior to the election.

Winning key Senate races in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada took some of the pressure off the outcome in Georgia. However, a loss by Sen. Raphael Warnock would give Democrats no buffer room in any hotly contested votes in the next Congress.

In the House, the margin of victory for Republicans is slightly less certain at the moment. House races across Alaska, California, Colorado and Maine have yet to be decided, leaving both Republicans and Democrats short of the magic number of 218 seats needed in the House to have a majority. However, Republicans currently hold 215 seats, with several outstanding elections looking likely to split in their favor and push them to at least the 218 number they need.

A flipped House also means new leadership on the House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee. Current Republican Ranking Member Sam Graves of Missouri would most likely become chair of the committee, while Democratic leadership is much more uncertain. Current Democratic Committee Chair Peter DeFazio of Oregon chose retirement over a re-election bid, ensuring there will be a new top Democrat on the committee for the first time since 2015.

Less than half of the Republicans who voted for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) last year will be returning to Congress in 2023. Only six of the 13 Republican members who voted to support the historic investment in roads, bridges and safety made it to Election Day. However, the remaining six all won.

At the state level, one statewide ballot question was approved by voters that will provide funding toward transportation projects. Massachusetts Ballot Question 1 will create an additional income tax of 4% for income over $1 million and will dedicate revenue to education and transportation purposes only. 

Thirty-six governors races were decided on Nov. 8. Generally, it was a good election year for incumbents, as incumbents won on both sides of the aisle in key races such as Florida, Georgia, Kansas and Michigan.  Maryland and Massachusetts had open seats, with popular Republican Governors termed out. Both states will see a Democratic Governor in office for the next four years.

In state legislatures, Democrats will take control of several legislative chambers that have been controlled by Republicans for several cycles (or more). This includes the Michigan House and Senate, and the Minnesota Senate, with the Pennsylvania House still up in the air. 

Compiled by ATSSA Federal Government Relations Director Cameron Greene and ATSSA State Government Relations Director Renee Gibson.